The exact figures
The tencha harvest in Kyoto prefecture fell from 1,127 tonnes in 2024 to 939 tonnes in 2025, down 19% on the first flush total. Within that, the hardest hit segment was hand-picked tencha in Uji: from 10,216 kg in 2024 to 6,140 kg in 2025, a 40% drop in volume.
The average first flush tencha price at the JA Kyoto auction went from about 5,400 yen a kilo in 2024 to more than 20,000 yen in 2025, a 265% rise that ITC analysts called the largest single-season price adjustment in the documented history of the tencha market.
Machine-harvested tencha also rose sharply: from 5,411 to 14,141 yen/kg (+161%). Standard grade ceremonial matcha is not immune to this; it simply absorbs it with a lag, because stock built up during quieter months cushions it for a while.
The causes: it is not just one thing
The press tends to reduce the matcha crisis to «a bad harvest because of the weather». The reality is more complex, and more worrying, because it involves structural factors that do not resolve in one season:
Factor 1: climate change and weather anomalies
The spring of 2025 was unusually warm in Kyoto in February and March, which brought a very early bud break. When the late April frosts arrived, the shoots were already exposed. The frost losses hit the Uji fields hardest, where north-facing slopes are more vulnerable to that kind of event.
The summer of 2024 played its part too: extreme temperatures reduced nutrient accumulation in the leaves of the last harvest, which indirectly affected the quality and volume of the following spring’s bud break.
Factor 2: growers are ageing
The average age of tencha growers in Uji is over 60. Handing the work on is a problem: growing tencha needs knowledge built up over decades, and many families have no successor. Every year that passes without a handover, some plots simply go unworked in spring.
Factor 3: global demand is exploding
The global matcha market has grown more than 80% in three years. Demand in the United States, Europe and Australia is growing faster than Japanese production can follow. China is raising output to take some of that demand, but first-harvest Japanese ceremonial matcha has no functional substitute at the top of the market.
Factor 4: the 2025 tariffs
International trade policy in 2025 added further pressure. European importers who until 2024 could source tencha directly from Japan ran into new tariff barriers that raised the price at origin, before transport and distribution costs came into it.
What it means for buyers in Europe
For anyone in Europe who buys ceremonial matcha regularly, the consequences are direct, with a lag of 6 to 12 months between the production crisis and the shelf:
- Prices for first-harvest Uji have risen 20 to 40% on the European market since the start of 2025.
- Certain specific lots of premium cultivars (Gokou, Asahi) are sold out, with no restock expected before the 2026 harvest.
- Importers are leaning more on Nishio and Kagoshima to hold prices, which can mean that some matchas labelled «Uji» in Europe contain blends from other regions.
China as the offsetting variable
The production crisis is specific to Japan and does not touch China. On the contrary: growers in Jingshan, Guizhou and Fujian are raising output and improving quality precisely to capture the demand the Japanese market cannot serve. In the mid-price ceremonial segment, quality Chinese matcha is a legitimate alternative, as this analysis has argued from the start.
The outlook for 2026 and beyond
The 2025 crisis is not a one-off. The structural factors, ageing growers, climate, demand pressure, do not resolve in a season. The market for first-harvest Japanese ceremonial matcha will be one of growing scarcity and high prices. Anyone who wants regular access will have to either absorb that cost or widen their quality criteria to alternative origins such as Kagoshima and the best Chinese growers.